BBC NEWS | Technology | Apple iPhone warning proves true

[Peter Korsten]

Andrew Robinson schreef:

> The real problem here is that the mobile phone market is built on an 
> insane and obviously doomed pricing model.

Which has nevertheless worked quite well over the last 15 years, at 
least from the providers' point of view.

> It's an unavoidable fact that VOIP will eventually turn mobile access 
> into a broadband-like commodity, the question is just when it will happen.

True, but who is going to provide that broadband to you? There's no such 
thing as free network access. And a mobile service is more than just 
having access to a network; it's having a phone number as well, for 
example. Or switching, not to be sniffed at either.

> I see it like this: Apple gets a kickback from the phone companies which 
> includes a percentce of call revenue. Why? To bribe Apple not to install 
> the inevitable iVOIP app that will kill the phone companies stone dead, 
> and to give Apple has an incentive to stop anyone else porting Skype / 
> unlocking etc.

Ah, here's were you are mistaken. Phone companies already know that 
everything will be VoIP in the future, and are clearly steering towards it.

For example, I work at a mobile operator and we have a WiMax offering. 
We have nomadicity, but not yet mobility, which we'll get in a next 
release of the specification.

So you can already run VoIP software on a mobile phone at the upper end 
of the market, and it won't be long until you get WiMax in hand-held 
devices.

Again, who is going to provide you with the network? Are you going to 
spend several hours a week setting up peering agreements with your 
friends and their wi-fi connections? What if you move out of range?

A mobile company offers you a service whereby you are always reachable 
if you want to, without having to worry about setting up this or that.

> So, Apple didn't go out of their way to make v1.1.1 of the iPhone 
> software compatible with third party firmware alterations. Surprise 
> surprise! If I'd hacked the firmware in my MacPro, I'd hardly expect 
> Leopard to work out of the box with it, so why are people expecting 
> iPhone to be different?

Because Apple is a cool and non-evil company, who would never do such a 
thing?

> It's significant to note that the US iPhone has a 2 year fixed contract 
> and the European ones (released about 6 months later) have an 18 month 
> contract. I'm guessing Apple has iVOIP and cross network compatibility 
> ready to turn on  in 19 months, once they have the a big enough market 
> share to be unstoppable, and both sides know this.

I think you vastly over-estimate Apple and their knowledge of the 
European mobile market. The iPhone is a very high-end device (at least 
price-wise), so it will never be more than a niche product, if you 
consider that penetration in some countries is way over 100%. For 
example, in Luxembourg it's 164%!

Add to that the by and large lower average income in Europe, and you're 
looking at an very different market. Apple has not sufficiently realised 
this, nor the fact that Europe is still very much a patchwork of 
different operators and regulations. For example, the current iPhone 
contract would be illegal in Belgium.

The impression that I and several of my colleagues have, is that the 
iPhone is an over-hyped product that fails to deliver when it comes to 
technical features. Putting a ?400 (at a guess) phone in the market and 
it won't even have 3G, that's plain daft.

> I'll have an unlocked iPhone in 19 months, if not sooner. I'll put up 
> with a locked one for a bit to get there.

Good luck to you, but there's a Dutch saying about cats and trees, and 
I'm going to wait and see what happens. I'm not at all confident that 
the iPhone will be anywhere near as much a success as the iPod.

- Peter